Secretary Austin to Gallagher: Only American Hard Power Could Have Deterred Putin

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In a House Armed Services Committee Hearing, Rep. Mike Gallagher pressed Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on deterrence failures in Ukraine and the lessons the administration thinks we should learn to ensure Taiwan does not suffer a similar fate. During the line of questioning, Secretary Austin admitted that it was a goal of the U.S. to deter Putin from invading Ukraine, which the administration obviously failed to achieve, and that deterrence is "very hard to achieve" without U.S. conventional hard power.

Watch the exchange here, or read the full exchange below.

Rep. Gallagher: "Thank you, gentlemen, we have limited time. So I'm going to ask a yes or no question probably unless otherwise indicated. Secretary Austin, last week, General Wolters told this committee that in the months leading up to February 24, he considered himself part of an interagency effort designed to deter and dissuade Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine. Did you share General Wolters's goal, yes or no?"

Secretary Austin: "I hope General Wolters shared my goals as I'm the Secretary of Defense. And my objectives were number one to defend this nation, number two to make sure that we did everything possible to unify and defend NATO if required, number three to flow security force assistance to Ukraine, and then number four to manage escalation."

Rep. Gallagher: "So the goal was not to deter Putin from invading Ukraine?"

Secretary Austin: "I've just laid out what my goals were, and certainly…"

Rep. Gallagher: "Those goals did not include deterring Putin from invading Ukraine unless I missed it."

Secretary Austin: "It was an objective of the government to deter Putin. But as General Milley described, it's very difficult to do unless you put forces on the ground and that's a decision that we made early in the effort here that we're not gonna put forces in Ukraine to fight Russia."

Rep. Gallagher: "It was an objective of the government. You've just reminded us that you are an important person in that government apparatus as Secretary of Defense. Was it the goal of your policy, or the government's policy for which you work, the President United States, to deter Putin from invading Ukraine?

Secretary Austin: "It was a goal to deter him from invading Ukraine and if he did invade, it was a goal, and still is a goal, to impose significant costs on Putin and you're seeing that play out in ways that Putin never imagined. And you're seeing the Ukrainians resist Putin in incredible ways because we provided them some capability to do that, but also because they have the grit and the determination to fight to defend their country."

Rep. Gallagher: "I totally agree with the grit and determination they've shown, which is remarkable. So the goal was to deter Putin. We did not achieve that goal Putin invaded anyway, on February 24. Do you share the assessment General Milley gave a little bit ago that perhaps Putin was simply undeterrable, and therefore our campaign of deterrence was bound to fail.

Secretary Austin: "I do not believe that our campaign has failed. This is still in progress and there's a price to be paid by Putin for what he's done."

Rep. Gallagher: "Got it. But we failed to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. I'm interested in whether you think there's anything we could have done looking back -- hindsight is 2020 -- in the months leading up to February 24, to successfully deter him from invading Ukraine. And perhaps there isn't. I don't know. I'm just curious to get your opinion."

Secretary Austin: "As General Milley pointed out, if we put forces into Ukraine to fight Putin, this would be a different story. But we made a decision that we weren't going to do that. And we made a decision for the right reason. And I support those decisions."

Rep. Gallagher: "So I think that's actually a very important point that perhaps if we had put hard power in the path of Putin, that would have been the only thing that could have deterred him. I guess what I mentioned, does the analysis, does that same analysis hold true with respect to Taiwan? Would putting American forces on Taiwan increase or decrease the likelihood that Xi Jinping would attempt an invasion?

Secretary Austin: "Hypothetical… I think that it's, you know, not advisable to make direct comparisons between Ukraine and Taiwan. These are two completely different scenarios, two different theaters, and so…"

Rep. Gallagher: "So do you think then that what has happened in Ukraine is not connected, has not impacted Xi's calculus with respect to Taiwan?"

Secretary Austin: "Now, I have to… I'm certain that, you know, I don't want to speculate with what's in Mr. Xi's head. But certainly, I think as the world looks at this, they've been impressed by the commitment, the resolve of many countries in the world to resist that kind of behavior."

Rep. Gallagher: "Would it be too far to characterize your view as the commitment and resolve on display by the Ukrainians and our NATO allies has made an invasion of Taiwan less likely than it was prior to the event? Less likely than it was on February 23?"

Secretary Austin: "It was a commitment of the people of Taiwan…

Rep. Gallagher: "No, if the general commitment that you just referenced with respect to NATO and Ukraine had any impact on Xi's calculus in Taiwan, and made an invasion more or less likely?"

Secretary Austin: "Well, again, I don't want to speculate on whether or not the invasion is likely or less likely. But again, I would say that we just need to be careful about making direct comparisons between what's going on in Ukraine and what could happen in Taiwan."